ProspectOS
Exploration Intelligence Platform

Prospect scoring that holds up in the field

ML-scored prospect identification, operator reliability analysis, and government lease intelligence — built for geoscientists, landmen, and investment teams evaluating upstream opportunities.

Currently in private beta — working with select operators and exploration teams

ML prospect scoring
Operator reliability analysis
Government lease intelligence
Seismic data integration
Exploration AI advisor
852K+
Wells Ingested
9 basins
43
Model Features
v3.2 XGBoost
9.47
Val RMSE
spatial block CV
317
Operators Scored
5-component model
Scroll
+ML Prospect Scoring+Operator Reliability+Lease Intelligence+Seismic Integration+SHAP Explainability+Watch Zones+Calibration Backtest+Multi-Basin Coverage+Exploration Advisor
The Problem

Exploration decisions still run on
spreadsheets and phone calls.

Independent operators evaluate prospects using inherited knowledge, personal networks, and manual data pulls. The result is slow, inconsistent, and impossible to validate after the fact.

$26B
Annual exploration capex by US independents
EIA, 2024
70%
Of prospects evaluated manually via spreadsheet and phone calls
Industry survey
0
Public tools offering calibrated, explainable prospect scoring
Competitive analysis
Platform

Intelligence at every stage of evaluation

01

ML Prospect Scoring

XGBoost model trained on 852K+ wells with 43 geological, production, completion, and spacing features. Spatial block cross-validation ensures robust out-of-sample accuracy. Every score comes with SHAP-based feature attribution.

02

Operator Intelligence

5-component reliability scoring across IP30 performance, completion quality, production consistency, drilling speed, and trend direction. Per-basin, per-operator, per-formation granularity. Tier badges (Strong / Average / Weak) on every prospect.

03

Lease Intelligence

Federal BLM and Texas GLO state lease overlays with expiration tracking. Automated opportunity flags identify expired government minerals available for nomination within 3 miles of high-scored prospects.

04

Seismic Integration

NAMSS public survey metadata for Gulf of Mexico plus a bring-your-own-seismic upload pipeline for proprietary onshore data. Six seismic features feed directly into the scoring model when coverage is available.

05

Exploration Advisor

AI-powered conversational agent with access to the full prospect database. Ask natural language questions about any location, formation, or operator. Backed by a 7-step spatial analysis pipeline with real-time data retrieval.

06

Prediction Track Record

Every prospect score is timestamped and immutable. As wells are drilled, predictions are matched to outcomes. The calibration backtest and prospective validation framework produce a verifiable, public track record.

How It Works

From public data to scored prospects

01

Connect your basins

Select the basins you operate in. ProspectOS has already ingested every public well, permit, production record, and government lease across 9 major US and international basins. No data upload required.

DJ Basin · Permian · Eagle Ford · Bakken · SCOOP/STACK · Powder River · Haynesville · Appalachian · Alberta
02

Prospects scored automatically

The ML model clusters producing wells by formation and spatial proximity, detects coverage gaps, and generates ranked prospect polygons. Each prospect receives a P10/P50/P90 score range with full SHAP decomposition.

43 features · Spatial block CV · Dual-mode scoring · Basin-aware benchmarks
03

Explore with your persona

Four workspace configurations — Geoscientist, Land Professional, Management, and Investor — surface the metrics, tabs, and exports most relevant to your role. Every view is tuned to how you actually make decisions.

Score decomposition · Analog wells · Operator reliability · Campaign fit · Investment briefs
04

Track and validate

Set watch zones on areas of interest. As new permits are filed and wells are drilled, ProspectOS matches outcomes to predictions and updates your track record. The model improves with every drilling result.

Watch zones · Permit alerts · Outcome matching · Calibration backtest · Public track record
What Sets ProspectOS Apart

Built different from the ground up

Calibrated, not just predictive

Every score is benchmarked against historical outcomes. We publish our hit rates.

Explainable by design

SHAP attribution on every score. Know exactly which features drive each prospect's ranking.

Public data, no lock-in

Built entirely on government regulatory data. No proprietary data dependencies or vendor lock-in.

Operator intelligence included

Quantified operator reliability — no other tool offers this from public production data.

Multi-basin from day one

9 basins ingested. Basin-aware benchmarks ensure scores are comparable across plays.

Minutes, not months

Self-serve onboarding. First scored prospect in under 5 minutes. No implementation project.

Verifiable track record

On-chain prediction anchoring creates an immutable, timestamped audit trail of every score.

AI advisor built in

Ask any question about any location. The Exploration Advisor reasons across the full dataset.

Product Preview

Your exploration command center

app.prospectos.app/dashboard
Active Prospects
273
+18 this week
Avg Score
64.2
Tier 2 median
Tier 1 (>75)
47
17% of portfolio
Watch Zones
12
3 with new permits
Score Distribution — DJ Basin
0255075100
Exploration Advisor
"The Wattenberg core shows 47 Tier 1 prospects in the Niobrara B bench, with strong analog density (12+ wells within 2mi) and operator reliability scores averaging 78. Recent permit activity from Civitas and Bison Oil suggests continued confidence in this window..."
Try the Demo
Technical Foundations

Rigorous methodology, transparent results

Gradient Boosted Trees

XGBoost ensemble with 43 features, spatial block cross-validation, and quantile regression for P10/P50/P90 confidence intervals.

Spatial Feature Engineering

PostGIS-native feature extraction: analog well density, production quality within radius, formation-level benchmarks, and drilling recency signals.

SHAP Explainability

SHapley Additive exPlanations provide per-prospect, per-feature attribution scores. Every deviation from baseline is accounted for.

Prediction-Outcome Loop

Prospective validation framework matches timestamped predictions to real drilling outcomes. The model retrains on expanding ground truth.

Read the research & download the full white paper

Built on public regulatory data

Every well, permit, production record, and government lease in ProspectOS comes from state and federal regulatory agencies. No proprietary data dependencies, no vendor lock-in. Your analysis is reproducible and auditable.

Learn about our data sources
Pricing

Start evaluating prospects today

No implementation project. No data upload. First scored prospect in under 5 minutes.

Free
$0forever
  • 3-5 sample prospects
  • 1 basin (read-only)
  • Methodology docs
  • Public track record
Get Started
Individual
$99/month
  • 1 basin, full scoring
  • Exploration Advisor (50 queries/mo)
  • CSV export
  • 1 seat
  • Watch zones
Start Free Trial
Most Popular
Team
$499/month
  • 3 basins, full scoring
  • Unlimited Advisor
  • All exports (CSV + PDF)
  • 5 seats
  • Watch zones
  • Operator reliability
  • Lease intelligence overlay
Request a Demo
Enterprise
Custom
  • All basins
  • Seismic upload (BYOS)
  • API access
  • SSO / SAML
  • Custom integrations
  • Dedicated support
  • SLA
Contact Us
852K+
Public wells ingested
9
Major basins covered
<5 min
Time to first scored prospect
100%
Public data — no vendor lock-in

Ready to evaluate prospects
with confidence?

See how ProspectOS scores prospects in your basin. No implementation, no data upload, no commitment.

Request a DemoSee PricingRead the Docs
From the Blog

Perspectives on upstream exploration

AI + Exploration

How AI Is Reshaping Oil and Gas Exploration

The upstream industry is experiencing a quiet revolution. Machine learning models trained on public well data can now score drilling prospects with measurable accuracy.

Framework

What Makes a Good Drilling Prospect?

A framework for evaluating upstream opportunities using production analogs, geological attributes, operator track record, and spacing analysis.

Strategy

Multi-Basin Exploration for Independents

How small operators can use publicly available data to evaluate opportunities across basins without Enverus-scale budgets.